Fakel Stadium · Referee Igor Kaplenkov, Russia · Analysis updated 02:44 UTC
Fakel vs Dinamo Makhachkala Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.31 expected goals for Fakel and 1.42 for Dinamo Makhachkala, a combined total of 2.73. That distribution gives Dinamo Makhachkala the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws roughly 61% of the time.
Model pick
Dinamo Makhachkala or Draw
65.1% probability
Expected goals
1.31 – 1.42
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 0–19.2%
- 1–28.6%
- 1–08.6%
- 2–18.0%
Why the model likes this
Fakel home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dinamo Makhachkala to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 35% / 26% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.31 goals for Fakel and 1.42 for Dinamo Makhachkala, a combined 2.73 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 51% and both teams to score at 55%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Recent form
Fakel
- 2026-08-15T13:15:00.000Z · A vs CSKA Moscow · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Akhmat · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-05T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Dynamo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-02T15:15:00.000Z · A vs FC Krasnodar · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-07-25T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Makhachkala · 1-2 (L)
Dinamo Makhachkala
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Krasnodar | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 2 | CSKA Moscow | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 3 | Zenit | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 |
| 4 | Spartak Moscow | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | Baltika | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Dinamo Makhachkala | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 7 | FC Orenburg | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 5 |
| 8 | Rubin | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 9 | FC Rostov | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 10 | Dynamo | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Rodina Moskva | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 4 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 13 | Akhmat | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 |
| 14 | Krylia Sovetov | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 15 | Akron | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -6 | 2 |
| 16 | Fakel | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.