AIL Arena · Analysis updated 02:45 UTC
FC Lugano vs FC ST. Gallen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.74 expected goals for FC Lugano and 1.44 for FC ST. Gallen, a combined total of 4.18. That distribution gives FC Lugano the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws roughly 35% of the time.
Model pick
FC Lugano to Win
64.8% probability
Expected goals
2.74 – 1.44
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.3%
- 3–17.6%
- 1–16.0%
- 2–26.0%
- 2–05.7%
Why the model likes this
FC Lugano home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC ST. Gallen away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Lugano to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 17% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.74 goals for FC Lugano and 1.44 for FC ST. Gallen, a combined 4.18 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
FC Lugano
- 2026-08-13T17:30:00.000Z · A vs NSI Runavik · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Zurich · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-06T18:30:00.000Z · H vs NSI Runavik · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-02T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Grasshoppers · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-07-29T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Dukagjini · 5-1 (W)
FC ST. Gallen
- 2026-08-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sheriff Tiraspol · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-09T14:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Luzern · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Sheriff Tiraspol · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-02T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Vaduz · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-07-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Benfica · 0-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Lugano | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 |
| 2 | BSC Young Boys | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 7 |
| 3 | FC ST. Gallen | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | FC Sion | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | FC Basel 1893 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Lausanne | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 7 | Servette FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 8 | FC Zurich | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3 |
| 9 | FC Thun | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 3 |
| 10 | Grasshoppers | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 11 | FC Luzern | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 12 | FC Vaduz | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.