Stadion Strelnice · Analysis updated 00:39 UTC
FK Jablonec vs Baník Ostrava Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.99 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 0.81 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives FK Jablonec the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws roughly 35% of the time.
Model pick
FK Jablonec to Win
65.0% probability
Expected goals
1.99 – 0.81
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.1%
- 2–012.0%
- 1–19.8%
- 2–19.8%
- 3–08.0%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates FK Jablonec to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 21% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.99 goals for FK Jablonec and 0.81 for Baník Ostrava, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 53% and both teams to score at 48%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Model confidence
FK Jablonec to Win is the headline pick at 65% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
FK Jablonec
Baník Ostrava
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slavia Praha | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 |
| 2 | FK Jablonec | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 3 | Mlada Boleslav | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| 4 | Hradec Králové | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Sigma Olomouc | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Teplice | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 7 | Slovan Liberec | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Sparta Praha | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 9 | Plzen | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 10 | Zbrojovka Brno | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Bohemians 1905 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 12 | Baník Ostrava | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 13 | Artis | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 14 | Pardubice | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 15 | Slovácko | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 1 |
| 16 | Zlin | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.