FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.18 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives FSV Mainz 05 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

FSV Mainz 05 or Draw

69.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-baseline-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

FSV Mainz 05 win44%

Draw26%

SC Paderborn 07 win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–010.4%
2–19.0%
0–18.3%
2–07.7%

Why the model likes this

Most likely outcome
The model rates FSV Mainz 05 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.18 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 50% and both teams to score at 54%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Model confidence
FSV Mainz 05 or Draw is the headline pick at 70% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

FSV Mainz 05

SC Paderborn 07

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Bundesliga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Bayern München	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Borussia Dortmund	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	RB Leipzig	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	VfB Stuttgart	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	1899 Hoffenheim	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Bayer Leverkusen	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Eintracht Frankfurt	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	FC Augsburg	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	FSV Mainz 05	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Union Berlin	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Borussia Mönchengladbach	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Hamburger SV	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	1. FC Köln	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Werder Bremen	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	FC Schalke 04	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	SV Elversberg	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	SC Paderborn 07	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.