England · Non League Premier - Northern · Regular Season - 114:00

10

Saturday, 8 August 2026

· Analysis updated 23:54 UTC

Ilkeston Town vs Stockton Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Ilkeston Town and 0.77 for Stockton Town, a combined total of 1.96. That distribution gives Ilkeston Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws roughly 54% of the time.

Model pick

Ilkeston Town to Win

46.1% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.20 – 0.77

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Ilkeston Town win46%
Draw30%
Stockton Town win24%

Double chance 1X

76%

Double chance 12

70%

Double chance X2

54%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals58%
Over 2.5 goals31%
Over 3.5 goals14%
Both teams to score37%

Correct score

  • 1–016.8%
  • 0–014.0%
  • 1–112.9%
  • 0–110.8%
  • 2–010.0%

Why the model likes this

  • Stockton Town away threat

    Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Ilkeston Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 30% / 24% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.20 goals for Ilkeston Town and 0.77 for Stockton Town, a combined 1.96 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 31% and both teams to score at 37%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%.

Recent form

Ilkeston Town

    Stockton Town

    • 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Leek Town · 1-1 (D)
    • 2026-08-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Ashton United · 0-1 (L)
    • 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ilkeston Town · 0-1 (L)
    • 2026-07-14T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Darlington 1883 · 1-3 (L)
    • 2026-04-28T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Hednesford Town · 0-2 (L)

    Head-to-head

    Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

    Non League Premier - Northern table

    Full league page →
    #TeamPWDLGDPts
    1Cleethorpes Town321077
    2Warrington Town321047
    3Bury321027
    4Gainsborough Trinity320146
    5Avro320136
    6Alfreton Town320136
    7Ashton United320136
    8Whitby Town320116
    9Ilkeston Town320106
    10Redcar Athletic312015
    11Guiseley AFC311114
    12AFC Emley311104
    13Hyde United3111-24
    14Rylands310213
    15Curzon Ashton3102-13
    16Lancaster City3102-33
    17Bamber Bridge3102-63
    18Leek Town3021-12
    19Stockton Town3012-21
    20Workington3012-31
    21Quorn3012-61
    22United of Manchester3012-61

    Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.