Estadio Ricardo Gregor · Analysis updated 23:43 UTC
Independiente F.b.c. vs Benjamín Aceval Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Independiente F.b.c. and 1.48 for Benjamín Aceval, a combined total of 2.81. That distribution gives Benjamín Aceval the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws roughly 59% of the time.
Model pick
Benjamín Aceval or Draw
65.9% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 0–18.9%
- 1–28.8%
- 1–08.0%
- 2–17.9%
Why the model likes this
Independiente F.b.c. home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Benjamín Aceval to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 34% / 25% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Independiente F.b.c. and 1.48 for Benjamín Aceval, a combined 2.81 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 53% and both teams to score at 57%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Recent form
Independiente F.b.c.
- 2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Guairena FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-11T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Ameliano · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-07T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Resistencia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-02T13:00:00.000Z · A vs SOL DE America · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-28T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Capiata · 1-1 (D)
Benjamín Aceval
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division Intermedia table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 de Junio VH | 19 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 40 |
| 2 | General Caballero | 18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 36 |
| 3 | Benjamín Aceval | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 35 |
| 4 | Deportivo Santani | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 33 |
| 5 | SOL DE America | 19 | 6 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 29 |
| 6 | Independiente F.b.c. | 19 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 26 |
| 7 | Resistencia | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | -1 | 25 |
| 8 | Sportivo Carapeguá | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | -7 | 25 |
| 9 | Atlético Tembetary | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 23 |
| 10 | Deportivo Capiata | 18 | 5 | 8 | 5 | -1 | 23 |
| 11 | Guairena FC | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | -4 | 23 |
| 12 | Fernando De La Mora | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | -7 | 23 |
| 13 | Paraguari AC | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | -5 | 20 |
| 14 | Tacuary | 18 | 3 | 9 | 6 | -5 | 18 |
| 15 | Encarnación | 19 | 3 | 3 | 13 | -12 | 12 |
| 16 | 3 de Noviembre | 18 | 0 | 7 | 11 | -16 | 7 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.