Järfälla vs Arlanda Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.09 expected goals for Järfälla and 1.82 for Arlanda, a combined total of 2.91. That distribution gives Arlanda the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws roughly 46% of the time.

Model pick

Arlanda to Win

54.4% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.09 – 1.82

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Järfälla win23%

Draw23%

Arlanda win54%

Double chance 1X

46%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

77%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals56%

Over 3.5 goals33%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

1–110.8%
0–19.9%
1–29.8%
0–29.0%
1–06.0%

Why the model likes this

Arlanda away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Arlanda to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 23% / 23% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.09 goals for Järfälla and 1.82 for Arlanda, a combined 2.91 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 56% and both teams to score at 56%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.

Recent form

Järfälla

Arlanda

2026-08-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Piteå · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-03T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Hammarby Talang · 1-5 (L)
2026-07-25T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Haninge · 6-1 (W)
2026-06-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs IF Karlstad · 1-0 (W)
2026-06-23T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Järfälla · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ettan - Norra table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Hammarby Talang	17	11	3	3	30	36
2	IF Karlstad	17	11	3	3	15	36
3	Stockholm Internazionale	16	9	3	4	16	30
4	Arlanda	16	8	6	2	9	30
5	AFC Eskilstuna	17	8	4	5	3	28
6	Enköping	16	9	1	6	1	28
7	FBK Karlstad	16	7	4	5	1	25
8	Karlberg	17	7	3	7	3	24
9	Assyriska FF	17	6	5	6	0	23
10	Gefle IF	17	6	2	9	-13	20
11	Vasalund	16	5	4	7	-8	19
12	Sollentuna	17	3	8	6	-9	17
13	Umeå FC	17	4	4	9	-9	16
14	Järfälla	17	4	3	10	-14	15
15	Stocksund	17	2	5	10	-7	11
16	Piteå	16	2	4	10	-18	10

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.