Almaty Central Stadium · Analysis updated 00:48 UTC
Kairat Almaty vs Irtysh Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.32 expected goals for Kairat Almaty and 0.64 for Irtysh, a combined total of 2.96. That distribution gives Kairat Almaty the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws roughly 25% of the time.
Model pick
Kairat Almaty to Win
75.2% probability
Expected goals
2.32 – 0.64
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
25%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–014.0%
- 1–012.1%
- 3–010.8%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–17.7%
Why the model likes this
Kairat Almaty home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kairat Almaty to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 75%, against 75% / 16% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.32 goals for Kairat Almaty and 0.64 for Irtysh, a combined 2.96 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 57% and both teams to score at 43%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Recent form
Kairat Almaty
- 2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ulytau · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Levski Sofia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-04T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Levski Sofia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Omonia Nicosia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ordabasy · 2-1 (W)
Irtysh
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 22 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 27 | 52 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 21 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 27 | 48 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 20 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 38 |
| 4 | Aktobe | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 35 |
| 5 | Okzhetpes | 21 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 33 |
| 6 | Yelimay Semey | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 31 |
| 7 | Ulytau | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | -6 | 28 |
| 8 | Zhenys | 21 | 6 | 8 | 7 | -3 | 26 |
| 9 | Kyzyl-Zhar | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 23 |
| 10 | Kaspiy | 21 | 6 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 22 |
| 11 | FK Tobol Kostanay | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | -7 | 22 |
| 12 | Atyrau | 20 | 3 | 11 | 6 | -4 | 20 |
| 13 | Kaisar | 21 | 3 | 11 | 7 | -8 | 20 |
| 14 | Zhetysu | 22 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -14 | 19 |
| 15 | Irtysh | 20 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -8 | 17 |
| 16 | Altay | 22 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -16 | 17 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.