Kairat Almaty vs Ordabasy Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Kairat Almaty and 1.11 for Ordabasy, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Kairat Almaty the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws roughly 57% of the time.

Model pick

Kairat Almaty or Draw

69.9% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.39 – 1.11

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Kairat Almaty win43%

Draw27%

Ordabasy win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals71%

Over 2.5 goals46%

Over 3.5 goals24%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

1–112.7%
1–011.4%
0–19.1%
2–18.8%
0–08.2%

Why the model likes this

Kairat Almaty home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kairat Almaty to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 27% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Kairat Almaty and 1.11 for Ordabasy, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 46% and both teams to score at 50%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

Recent form

Kairat Almaty

2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ulytau · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Levski Sofia · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-04T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Levski Sofia · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Omonia Nicosia · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ordabasy · 2-1 (W)

Ordabasy

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ordabasy	22	16	4	2	27	52
2	Kairat Almaty	21	14	6	1	27	48
3	FC Astana	20	11	5	4	12	38
4	Aktobe	22	10	5	7	6	35
5	Okzhetpes	21	9	6	6	1	33
6	Yelimay Semey	20	8	7	5	5	31
7	Ulytau	22	7	7	8	-6	28
8	Zhenys	21	6	8	7	-3	26
9	Kyzyl-Zhar	21	6	5	10	-5	23
10	Kaspiy	21	6	4	11	-7	22
11	FK Tobol Kostanay	20	6	4	10	-7	22
12	Atyrau	20	3	11	6	-4	20
13	Kaisar	21	3	11	7	-8	20
14	Zhetysu	22	4	7	11	-14	19
15	Irtysh	20	3	8	9	-8	17
16	Altay	22	3	8	11	-16	17

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.