Steponas Darius and Stasys Girenas · Referee D. Massa · Analysis updated 22:49 UTC
Kauno Žalgiris vs Dinamo Zagreb Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Kauno Žalgiris and 1.52 for Dinamo Zagreb, a combined total of 2.52. That distribution gives Dinamo Zagreb the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws roughly 51% of the time.
Model pick
Dinamo Zagreb to Win
49.4% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.52
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.2%
- 1–112.2%
- 0–29.3%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–08.0%
Why the model likes this
Kauno Žalgiris home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dinamo Zagreb to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 25% / 26% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Kauno Žalgiris and 1.52 for Dinamo Zagreb, a combined 2.52 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 46% and both teams to score at 50%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Recent form
Kauno Žalgiris
- 2026-08-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Zagreb · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Hegelmann Litauen · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Zagreb · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-07-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs KI Klaksvik · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-21T18:45:00.000Z · A vs KI Klaksvik · 0-0 (D)
Dinamo Zagreb
- 2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Rudes · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Kauno Žalgiris · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Kauno Žalgiris · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-07-31T18:00:00.000Z · H vs NK Slaven Belupo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-28T18:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Thun · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.