Polsat Plus Arena · Referee D. Sylwestrzak · Analysis updated 04:40 UTC
Lechia Gdansk vs Legia Warszawa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.18 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Lechia Gdansk the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.
Model pick
Lechia Gdansk or Draw
69.8% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-baseline-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.3%
- 2–07.7%
Why the model likes this
Lechia Gdansk home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lechia Gdansk to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.18 for Legia Warszawa, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 50% and both teams to score at 54%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Recent form
Lechia Gdansk
- 2026-08-14T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Ruch Chorzów · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-08T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Podbeskidzie · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-31T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Warta Poznań · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-07-25T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-07-18T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Randers FC · 2-2 (D)
Legia Warszawa
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Legia Warszawa | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 10 |
| 2 | Lech Poznan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Gornik Zabrze | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Pogon Szczecin | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | Wisla Krakow | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Zaglebie Lubin | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Jagiellonia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 8 | Widzew Łódź | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 9 | Wisla Plock | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Korona Kielce | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Slask Wroclaw | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | GKS Katowice | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Wieczysta Kraków | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 | Piast Gliwice | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 15 | Radomiak Radom | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -8 | 3 |
| 16 | Cracovia Krakow | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 17 | Motor Lublin | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.