Liverpool vs Wrexham Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.00 expected goals for Liverpool and 2.50 for Wrexham, a combined total of 5.50. That distribution gives Liverpool the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 91% for over 2.5 goals and 87% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws roughly 50% of the time.

Model pick

Liverpool to Win

49.6% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

3.00 – 2.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Liverpool win50%

Draw17%

Wrexham win33%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

51%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals97%

Over 2.5 goals91%

Over 3.5 goals79%

Both teams to score87%

Correct score

2–25.7%
3–25.7%
2–34.8%
3–34.8%
2–14.6%

Why the model likes this

Liverpool home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Liverpool to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 17% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.00 goals for Liverpool and 2.50 for Wrexham, a combined 5.50 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 91% and both teams to score at 87%, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%.

Recent form

Liverpool

2026-08-09T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Monaco · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-02T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Leeds · 2-4 (L)
2026-07-29T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Wrexham · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-25T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Sunderland · 4-2 (W)
2026-05-24T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Brentford · 1-1 (D)

Wrexham

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League - Summer Series table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Liverpool	1	1	0	2	3
2	Leeds	0	0	0	0	0
3	Wrexham	0	0	0	0	0
4	Sunderland	1	0	1	-2	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.