The Home of the Set Fare Arena · Analysis updated 23:50 UTC
Livingston vs Inverness CT Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Livingston and 1.18 for Inverness CT, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Livingston the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.
Model pick
Livingston or Draw
69.8% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-baseline-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.3%
- 2–07.7%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Livingston to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Livingston and 1.18 for Inverness CT, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 50% and both teams to score at 54%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Model confidence
Livingston or Draw is the headline pick at 70% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Livingston
Inverness CT
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ST Johnstone | 36 | 22 | 11 | 3 | 42 | 77 |
| 2 | Partick | 36 | 17 | 15 | 4 | 17 | 66 |
| 3 | Arbroath | 36 | 13 | 13 | 10 | 2 | 52 |
| 4 | Dunfermline | 36 | 14 | 9 | 13 | 11 | 51 |
| 5 | Raith Rovers | 36 | 12 | 9 | 15 | 1 | 45 |
| 6 | Queen's Park | 36 | 9 | 14 | 13 | -13 | 41 |
| 7 | Ayr Utd | 36 | 8 | 15 | 13 | -9 | 39 |
| 8 | Morton | 36 | 8 | 14 | 14 | -16 | 38 |
| 9 | Airdrie United | 36 | 8 | 12 | 16 | -14 | 36 |
| 10 | Ross County | 36 | 8 | 10 | 18 | -21 | 34 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.