Metallurg Stadium · Analysis updated 02:44 UTC
Metalourg vs FarDu Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.38 expected goals for Metalourg and 1.14 for FarDu, a combined total of 3.52. That distribution gives Metalourg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws roughly 35% of the time.
Model pick
Metalourg to Win
64.8% probability
Expected goals
2.38 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.6%
- 2–08.4%
- 1–18.0%
- 3–17.6%
- 1–07.1%
Why the model likes this
FarDu away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Metalourg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 18% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.38 goals for Metalourg and 1.14 for FarDu, a combined 3.52 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 68% and both teams to score at 62%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Recent form
Metalourg
FarDu
- 2026-08-14T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Jayxun · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Pakhtakor II · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-04T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Qiziriq · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-07-31T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Yaypan · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Lochin · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Pro League A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aral | 15 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 24 | 39 |
| 2 | Shortan | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 33 |
| 3 | Kattaqurgon | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 30 |
| 4 | FarDu | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 26 |
| 5 | Metalourg | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 25 |
| 6 | Olimpik-Mobiuz | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 25 |
| 7 | Lochin | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 25 |
| 8 | Gazalkent | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 24 |
| 9 | Yaypan | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 18 |
| 10 | Jayxun | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -6 | 15 |
| 11 | Respublika FA | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -9 | 13 |
| 12 | BuxDu | 15 | 3 | 1 | 11 | -22 | 10 |
| 13 | Pakhtakor II | 15 | 2 | 1 | 12 | -27 | 7 |
| 14 | Qiziriq | 15 | 1 | 1 | 13 | -23 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.