The Den · Analysis updated 05:13 UTC
Millwall vs Stoke City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.79 expected goals for Millwall and 1.02 for Stoke City, a combined total of 2.81. That distribution gives Millwall the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws roughly 44% of the time.
Model pick
Millwall to Win
55.6% probability
Expected goals
1.79 – 1.02
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 1–010.8%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.7%
- 0–16.1%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Millwall to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 23% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.79 goals for Millwall and 1.02 for Stoke City, a combined 2.81 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 53% and both teams to score at 53%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Model confidence
Millwall to Win is the headline pick at 56% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Millwall
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bristol City · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs QPR · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Antwerp · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-28T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Bromley · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stevenage · 0-1 (L)
Stoke City
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Swansea · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Oldham · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Valencia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-28T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Everton · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Crewe · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | QPR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Millwall | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | Bolton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Charlton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | West Brom | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Swansea | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Blackburn | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Wolves | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Sheffield Utd | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | West Ham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Burnley | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Cardiff | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Watford | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Wrexham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Derby | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Norwich | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 19 | Preston | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 20 | Stoke City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 21 | Lincoln | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Portsmouth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 23 | Bristol City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 24 | Southampton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.