Moreland City vs Essendon Royals SC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.41 expected goals for Moreland City and 3.20 for Essendon Royals SC, a combined total of 4.61. That distribution gives Essendon Royals SC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws roughly 28% of the time.

Model pick

Essendon Royals SC to Win

72.4% probability

High confidence

Expected goals

1.41 – 3.20

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Moreland City win14%

Draw14%

Essendon Royals SC win72%

Double chance 1X

28%

Double chance 12

86%

Double chance X2

86%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals94%

Over 2.5 goals83%

Over 3.5 goals67%

Both teams to score72%

Correct score

1–37.7%
1–27.2%
1–46.1%
0–35.4%
2–35.4%

Why the model likes this

Moreland City home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Essendon Royals SC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 14% / 14% / 72% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.41 goals for Moreland City and 3.20 for Essendon Royals SC, a combined 4.61 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 83% and both teams to score at 72%, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.

Recent form

Moreland City

2026-08-15T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Box Hill · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-08T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Kingston City · 3-5 (L)
2026-08-01T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayside Argonauts · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-25T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Werribee City · 4-4 (D)
2026-07-18T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Malvern · 0-5 (L)

Essendon Royals SC

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Victoria Premier League 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Malvern	24	17	2	5	32	53
2	Goulburn Valley Suns	24	16	4	4	23	52
3	Essendon Royals SC	24	15	2	7	24	47
4	Bayside Argonauts	24	13	5	6	12	44
5	Keilor Park	24	12	2	10	-2	38
6	Box Hill	24	10	7	7	7	37
7	Whittlesea United	24	8	10	6	12	34
8	Springvale	24	8	5	11	-15	29
9	Eastern Lions	24	6	8	10	-1	26
10	Kingston City	24	8	2	14	-20	26
11	Nunawading	23	7	4	12	-18	25
12	Werribee City	24	6	6	12	-8	24
13	Altona City	24	3	8	13	-17	17
14	Moreland City	23	2	7	14	-29	13

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.