New York City FC vs New England Revolution Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.59 expected goals for New York City FC and 1.25 for New England Revolution, a combined total of 2.84. That distribution gives New York City FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws roughly 55% of the time.

Model pick

New York City FC to Win

45.4% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.59 – 1.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

New York City FC win45%

Draw25%

New England Revolution win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals32%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–111.6%
1–09.3%
2–19.2%
2–07.4%
0–17.3%

Why the model likes this

New York City FC home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates New York City FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 25% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.59 goals for New York City FC and 1.25 for New England Revolution, a combined 2.84 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

New York City FC

2026-08-13T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Necaxa · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-09T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Cruz Azul · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-06T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Santos Laguna · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-31T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Toronto FC · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-25T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Chicago Fire · 3-1 (W)

New England Revolution

2026-08-08T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Houston Dynamo · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-01T23:30:00.000Z · A vs CF Montreal · 2-2 (D)
2026-07-25T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Atlanta United FC · 4-1 (W)
2026-07-22T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Toronto FC · 0-0 (D)
2026-05-23T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Charlotte · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

2025-04-19T23:30:00.000Z · New York City FC 0-2 New England Revolution (Major League Soccer)
2025-03-15T23:40:00.000Z · New York City FC 2-1 New England Revolution (Major League Soccer)
2024-08-09T23:30:00.000Z · New York City FC 1-1 New England Revolution (Leagues Cup)
2024-05-25T23:30:00.000Z · New York City FC 1-0 New England Revolution (Major League Soccer)
2024-04-13T23:30:00.000Z · New York City FC 2-0 New England Revolution (Major League Soccer)
2023-06-03T19:30:00.000Z · New York City FC 0-0 New England Revolution (Major League Soccer)
2023-04-01T23:30:00.000Z · New York City FC 1-1 New England Revolution (Major League Soccer)
2022-09-05T00:00:00.000Z · New York City FC 0-3 New England Revolution (Major League Soccer)
2022-07-09T17:00:00.000Z · New York City FC 4-2 New England Revolution (Major League Soccer)
2022-05-25T23:30:00.000Z · New York City FC 1-0 New England Revolution (US Open Cup)

Major League Soccer table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	17	10	4	3	21	34
2	Los Angeles FC	19	10	4	5	16	34
3	San Jose Earthquakes	18	10	3	5	13	33
4	Houston Dynamo	18	10	2	6	3	32
5	Real Salt Lake	17	8	3	6	4	27
6	FC Dallas	18	7	6	5	7	27
7	St. Louis City	18	7	5	6	0	26
8	Portland Timbers	18	7	3	8	0	24
9	Seattle Sounders	17	7	3	7	-2	24
10	Minnesota United FC	18	6	6	6	-5	24
11	Colorado Rapids	18	7	1	10	2	22
12	Los Angeles Galaxy	19	5	7	7	-5	22
13	San Diego	18	5	6	7	3	21
14	Austin	18	4	5	9	-14	17
15	Sporting Kansas City	18	4	2	12	-28	14
1	Nashville SC	18	12	4	2	21	40
2	Inter Miami	18	11	5	2	13	38
3	New England Revolution	18	9	3	6	5	30
4	Chicago Fire	17	9	2	6	9	29
5	New York City FC	18	7	5	6	7	26
6	FC Cincinnati	18	7	5	6	1	26
7	Charlotte	18	7	4	7	2	25
8	New York Red Bulls	18	7	4	7	-10	25
9	DC United	18	5	8	5	-3	23
10	Orlando City SC	18	6	2	10	-17	20
11	Columbus Crew	18	5	5	8	-2	20
12	Toronto FC	18	3	8	7	-8	17
13	Philadelphia Union	18	4	4	10	-8	16
14	CF Montreal	18	4	4	10	-11	16
15	Atlanta United FC	18	3	3	12	-14	12

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.