Stadion Stozice · Referee A. Borosak · Analysis updated 01:52 UTC
Olimpija Ljubljana vs Aluminij Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.77 expected goals for Olimpija Ljubljana and 0.75 for Aluminij, a combined total of 1.52. That distribution gives Olimpija Ljubljana the largest share of the 1X2 market at 32%, with the draw at 37%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 20% for over 2.5 goals and 28% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 22%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 32% favourite still loses or draws roughly 68% of the time.
Model pick
Olimpija Ljubljana or Draw
68.6% probability
Expected goals
0.77 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
64%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–021.9%
- 1–016.8%
- 0–116.5%
- 1–112.6%
- 2–06.4%
Why the model likes this
Olimpija Ljubljana home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 32% / 37% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.77 goals for Olimpija Ljubljana and 0.75 for Aluminij, a combined 1.52 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 20% and both teams to score at 28%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 22%.
Recent form
Olimpija Ljubljana
- 2026-08-15T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Maribor · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-08T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Celje · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-02T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Aluminij · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Mura · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-18T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Bravo · 0-2 (L)
Aluminij
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. SNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maribor | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Celje | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
| 3 | Nafta | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Bravo | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 5 | Koper | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 6 | Brinje-Grosuplje | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 7 | Radomlje | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 8 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 9 | Mura | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 4 |
| 10 | Aluminij | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.