Parma vs AS Roma Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Parma and 1.18 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Parma the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

Parma or Draw

69.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-baseline-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Parma win44%

Draw26%

AS Roma win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–010.4%
2–19.0%
0–18.3%
2–07.7%

Why the model likes this

Parma home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AS Roma away threat
Scored in 7 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.

Recent form

Parma

2026-08-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Catania · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sampdoria · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-02T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Iraklis 1908 · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Arezzo · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sassuolo · 0-0 (D)

AS Roma

2026-08-15T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Dortmund · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brighton · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Newport County · 4-1 (W)
2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cardiff · 1-4 (L)
2026-07-26T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Cannes · 3-3 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · Parma 2-3 AS Roma (Serie A)
2025-10-29T17:30:00.000Z · Parma 1-2 AS Roma (Serie A)
2025-02-16T17:00:00.000Z · Parma 0-1 AS Roma (Serie A)
2024-12-22T11:30:00.000Z · Parma 0-5 AS Roma (Serie A)
2021-03-14T14:00:00.000Z · Parma 2-0 AS Roma (Serie A)
2020-11-22T14:00:00.000Z · Parma 0-3 AS Roma (Serie A)
2020-07-08T19:45:00.000Z · Parma 1-2 AS Roma (Serie A)
2020-01-16T20:15:00.000Z · Parma 0-2 AS Roma (Coppa Italia)
2019-11-10T17:00:00.000Z · Parma 2-0 AS Roma (Serie A)
2019-05-26T18:30:00.000Z · Parma 1-2 AS Roma (Serie A)

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Bologna	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Cagliari	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Como	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Fiorentina	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Frosinone	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Genoa	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Inter	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Juventus	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Lazio	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Lecce	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	AC Milan	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Monza	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Napoli	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Parma	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	AS Roma	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Sassuolo	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Torino	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Udinese	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Venezia	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.