· Referee M. Kochanek · Analysis updated 00:56 UTC
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Polonia Warszawa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.11 expected goals for Puszcza Niepołomice and 1.09 for Polonia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Puszcza Niepołomice the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws roughly 64% of the time.
Model pick
Puszcza Niepołomice or Draw
64.9% probability
Expected goals
1.11 – 1.09
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.4%
- 1–012.3%
- 0–112.1%
- 0–011.1%
- 2–17.4%
Why the model likes this
Puszcza Niepołomice home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Puszcza Niepołomice to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 36% / 29% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.11 goals for Puszcza Niepołomice and 1.09 for Polonia Warszawa, a combined 2.20 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 38% and both teams to score at 45%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Recent form
Puszcza Niepołomice
- 2026-08-08T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Odra Opole · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-02T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-26T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Warszawa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Jarosław · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Widzew Łódź · 0-2 (L)
Polonia Warszawa
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
| 2 | Chrobry Głogów | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Polonia Warszawa | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Arka Gdynia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | Nieciecza | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Warta Poznań | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Odra Opole | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 8 | Stal Mielec | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 9 | Pogoń Siedlce | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 10 | Miedz Legnica | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Polonia Bytom | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 12 | Podbeskidzie | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| 13 | ŁKS Łódź | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 14 | Ruch Chorzów | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | Puszcza Niepołomice | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 16 | Unia Skierniewice | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 17 | Stal Rzeszów | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -8 | 2 |
| 18 | Lechia Gdansk | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.