Red Bull Salzburg vs Başakşehir Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.93 expected goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 1.00 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.92. That distribution gives Red Bull Salzburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws roughly 41% of the time.

Model pick

Red Bull Salzburg to Win

58.9% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.93 – 1.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Red Bull Salzburg win59%

Draw22%

Başakşehir win19%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

41%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals56%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–010.3%
1–110.3%
2–09.9%
2–19.9%
3–06.4%

Why the model likes this

Red Bull Salzburg home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Red Bull Salzburg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 22% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.93 goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 1.00 for Başakşehir, a combined 2.92 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 56% and both teams to score at 54%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Recent form

Red Bull Salzburg

2026-08-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Pafos · 3-3 (D)
2026-08-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Wolfsberger AC · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-06T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Pafos · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-01T17:30:00.000Z · H vs TSV Hartberg · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Oberwart · 7-1 (W)

Başakşehir

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.