Netherlands · Tweede Divisie · Relegation Round18:00

10

Wednesday, 27 May 2026

Sportpark De Kooltuin · Analysis updated 00:27 UTC

Rijnvogels vs DVS 33 Ermelo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Rijnvogels and 1.18 for DVS 33 Ermelo, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Rijnvogels the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

Rijnvogels or Draw

69.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-baseline-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Rijnvogels win44%
Draw26%
DVS 33 Ermelo win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Over 3.5 goals28%
Both teams to score54%

Correct score

  • 1–112.2%
  • 1–010.4%
  • 2–19.0%
  • 0–18.3%
  • 2–07.7%

Why the model likes this

  • Rijnvogels home form

    10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.

  • DVS 33 Ermelo away threat

    Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Rijnvogels to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.48 goals for Rijnvogels and 1.18 for DVS 33 Ermelo, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Rijnvogels

  • 2026-08-15T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Gemert · 2-2 (D)
  • 2026-06-06T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Excelsior Maassluis · 1-2 (L)
  • 2026-06-03T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Excelsior Maassluis · 2-1 (W)
  • 2026-05-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs DVS 33 Ermelo · 2-2 (D)
  • 2026-05-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs DVS 33 Ermelo · 1-0 (W)

DVS 33 Ermelo

  • 2026-08-15T12:30:00.000Z · A vs SC Genemuiden · 1-2 (L)
  • 2026-08-08T12:30:00.000Z · A vs GVVV Veenendaal · 0-3 (L)
  • 2026-05-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rijnvogels · 2-2 (D)
  • 2026-05-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Rijnvogels · 0-1 (L)
  • 2026-05-23T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Huizen · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tweede Divisie table

Full league page →
#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Sparta Rotterdam II110053
2Quick Boys110053
3De Treffers110043
4Almere City II110043
5HHC110023
6Hoek110023
7Kloetinge110023
8Ijsselmeervogels110013
9Spakenburg110013
10Kozakken Boys1001-10
11Katwijk1001-10
12AFC Amsterdam1001-20
13Barendrecht1001-20
14Koninklijke HFC1001-20
15GVVV Veenendaal1001-40
16Rijnsburgse Boys1001-40
17ROHDA Raalte1001-50
18RKAV Volendam1001-50

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.