Sevilla vs Real Madrid Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Sevilla and 1.45 for Real Madrid, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Real Madrid the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

Real Madrid or Draw

70.0% probability

High confidence

Expected goals

1.15 – 1.45

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Sevilla win30%

Draw26%

Real Madrid win44%

Double chance 1X

56%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

70%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

1–112.4%
0–110.8%
1–29.0%
1–08.5%
0–27.8%

Why the model likes this

Sevilla home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Real Madrid away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Real Madrid to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 30% / 26% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Sevilla and 1.45 for Real Madrid, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Sevilla

2026-08-08T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bayer Leverkusen · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-02T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Utrecht · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-31T17:00:00.000Z · A vs NEC Nijmegen · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-26T19:00:00.000Z · H vs AD Ceuta FC · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-23T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Cordoba · 0-0 (D)

Real Madrid

2026-08-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo La Coruna · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-08T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Ferencvarosi TC · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Fiorentina · 2-2 (D)
2026-07-28T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Leganes · 4-1 (W)
2026-05-23T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club · 4-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

La Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Alaves	1	1	0	3	3
2	Barcelona	0	0	0	0	0
3	Real Madrid	0	0	0	0	0
4	Villarreal	0	0	0	0	0
5	Atletico Madrid	0	0	0	0	0
6	Real Betis	0	0	0	0	0
7	Celta Vigo	0	0	0	0	0
8	Rayo Vallecano	0	0	0	0	0
9	Valencia	0	0	0	0	0
10	Real Sociedad	0	0	0	0	0
11	Espanyol	0	0	0	0	0
12	Athletic Club	0	0	0	0	0
13	Sevilla	0	0	0	0	0
14	Elche	0	0	0	0	0
15	Levante	0	0	0	0	0
16	Osasuna	0	0	0	0	0
17	Racing Santander	0	0	0	0	0
18	Deportivo La Coruna	0	0	0	0	0
19	Malaga	0	0	0	0	0
20	Getafe	1	0	1	-3	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.