Solihull Moors vs Northampton Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for Solihull Moors and 1.25 for Northampton, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Northampton the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws roughly 59% of the time.

Model pick

Northampton or Draw

69.0% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.05 – 1.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Solihull Moors win31%

Draw28%

Northampton win41%

Double chance 1X

59%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

69%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals67%

Over 2.5 goals40%

Over 3.5 goals20%

Both teams to score46%

Correct score

1–113.2%
0–112.5%
1–010.5%
0–010.0%
1–28.2%

Why the model likes this

Solihull Moors home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Northampton to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 31% / 28% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.05 goals for Solihull Moors and 1.25 for Northampton, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 40% and both teams to score at 46%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

Recent form

Solihull Moors

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Boston United · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Harrogate Town · 2-5 (L)
2026-08-01T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Northampton · 2-4 (L)
2026-07-28T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Burton Albion · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hereford · 3-0 (W)

Northampton

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.