Netherlands · Tweede Divisie · Regular Season - 3113:00

41

Saturday, 25 April 2026

Sportpark Nieuw Terbregge · Analysis updated 02:41 UTC

Sparta Rotterdam II vs Barendrecht Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.31 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam II and 1.62 for Barendrecht, a combined total of 4.92. That distribution gives Sparta Rotterdam II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 86% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws roughly 30% of the time.

Model pick

Sparta Rotterdam II to Win

70.1% probability

High confidence

Expected goals

3.31 – 1.62

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Sparta Rotterdam II win70%
Draw14%
Barendrecht win16%

Double chance 1X

84%

Double chance 12

86%

Double chance X2

30%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals95%
Over 2.5 goals86%
Over 3.5 goals72%
Both teams to score77%

Correct score

  • 3–17.1%
  • 2–16.4%
  • 4–15.9%
  • 3–25.7%
  • 2–25.2%

Why the model likes this

  • Sparta Rotterdam II home form

    6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.

  • Barendrecht away threat

    Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Sparta Rotterdam II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 70% / 14% / 16% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 3.31 goals for Sparta Rotterdam II and 1.62 for Barendrecht, a combined 4.92 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Sparta Rotterdam II

  • 2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs ROHDA Raalte · 6-1 (W)
  • 2026-08-08T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Excelsior Maassluis · 2-4 (L)
  • 2026-07-25T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Jong AZ · 2-3 (L)
  • 2026-07-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Spakenburg · 1-1 (D)
  • 2026-07-11T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Katwijk · 1-1 (D)

Barendrecht

  • 2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs HHC · 1-3 (L)
  • 2026-05-23T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Excelsior Maassluis · 1-2 (L)
  • 2026-05-16T13:30:00.000Z · A vs RKAV Volendam · 2-5 (L)
  • 2026-05-09T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Hoek · 4-2 (W)
  • 2026-04-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Rotterdam II · 1-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tweede Divisie table

Full league page →
#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Sparta Rotterdam II110053
2Quick Boys110053
3De Treffers110043
4Almere City II110043
5HHC110023
6Hoek110023
7Kloetinge110023
8Ijsselmeervogels110013
9Spakenburg110013
10Kozakken Boys1001-10
11Katwijk1001-10
12AFC Amsterdam1001-20
13Barendrecht1001-20
14Koninklijke HFC1001-20
15GVVV Veenendaal1001-40
16Rijnsburgse Boys1001-40
17ROHDA Raalte1001-50
18RKAV Volendam1001-50

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.