Hodges Stadium · Referee M. Hassan · Analysis updated 02:57 UTC
Sporting JAX vs Charleston Battery Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for Sporting JAX and 2.94 for Charleston Battery, a combined total of 4.28. That distribution gives Charleston Battery the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws roughly 30% of the time.
Model pick
Charleston Battery to Win
70.1% probability
Expected goals
1.34 – 2.94
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
30%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.0%
- 1–37.9%
- 0–26.0%
- 0–35.9%
- 1–45.8%
Why the model likes this
Sporting JAX home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Charleston Battery to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 15% / 15% / 70% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.34 goals for Sporting JAX and 2.94 for Charleston Battery, a combined 4.28 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 80% and both teams to score at 70%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Recent form
Sporting JAX
- 2026-08-02T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Sacramento Republic · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-07-26T01:00:00.000Z · A vs El Paso Locomotive · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-18T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Brooklyn · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-15T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-08T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Austin · 0-4 (L)
Charleston Battery
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
USL Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 19 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 17 | 41 |
| 2 | Charleston Battery | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 33 |
| 3 | Detroit City | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 32 |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 30 |
| 5 | Louisville City | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 28 |
| 6 | Indy Eleven | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 25 |
| 7 | Rhode Island | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 25 |
| 8 | Hartford Athletic | 19 | 5 | 9 | 5 | -3 | 24 |
| 9 | Miami FC | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -9 | 22 |
| 10 | Loudoun United | 19 | 3 | 10 | 6 | -9 | 19 |
| 11 | Birmingham Legion | 17 | 3 | 8 | 6 | -3 | 17 |
| 12 | Brooklyn | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | -15 | 13 |
| 13 | Sporting JAX | 20 | 1 | 5 | 14 | -29 | 8 |
| 1 | Orange County SC | 19 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 34 |
| 2 | San Antonio | 19 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 32 |
| 3 | New Mexico United | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 30 |
| 4 | FC Tulsa | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 29 |
| 5 | Lexington | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 28 |
| 6 | El Paso Locomotive | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 28 |
| 7 | Sacramento Republic | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 27 |
| 8 | Las Vegas Lights | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | -1 | 26 |
| 9 | Colorado Springs | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 25 |
| 10 | Oakland Roots | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -4 | 22 |
| 11 | Phoenix Rising | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | -2 | 22 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | -15 | 15 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.