Start vs Valerenga Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Start and 1.84 for Valerenga, a combined total of 3.23. That distribution gives Valerenga the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws roughly 52% of the time.

Model pick

Valerenga to Win

48.3% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.39 – 1.84

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Start win29%

Draw23%

Valerenga win48%

Double chance 1X

52%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

71%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Both teams to score63%

Correct score

1–110.1%
1–29.3%
0–17.3%
2–17.0%
0–26.7%

Why the model likes this

Valerenga away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Valerenga to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 29% / 23% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Start and 1.84 for Valerenga, a combined 3.23 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 63% and both teams to score at 63%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Recent form

Start

Valerenga

2026-08-08T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bodo/Glimt · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-31T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ham-Kam · 0-3 (L)
2026-07-26T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Brann · 3-2 (W)
2026-07-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Aalesund · 6-1 (W)
2026-07-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tromso · 0-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Eliteserien table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Bodo/Glimt	17	13	2	2	31	41
2	Viking	17	13	1	3	23	40
3	Tromso	16	10	4	2	15	34
4	Lillestrom	17	8	2	7	2	26
5	Molde	16	7	3	6	5	24
6	Rosenborg	17	7	3	7	3	24
7	Brann	16	7	1	8	6	22
8	Sarpsborg 08 FF	16	6	4	6	-2	22
9	Ham-Kam	16	6	4	6	-3	22
10	Valerenga	16	6	2	8	-6	20
11	Fredrikstad	16	6	2	8	-10	20
12	KFUM Oslo	17	5	4	8	-8	19
13	Sandefjord	16	4	3	9	-9	15
14	Kristiansund BK	16	4	3	9	-11	15
15	Aalesund	16	2	8	6	-14	14
16	Start	17	2	4	11	-22	10

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.