Stockton Town vs Ashton United Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.83 expected goals for Stockton Town and 1.20 for Ashton United, a combined total of 2.03. That distribution gives Ashton United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

Ashton United or Draw

74.3% probability

High confidence

Expected goals

0.83 – 1.20

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Stockton Town win26%

Draw30%

Ashton United win44%

Double chance 1X

56%

Double chance 12

70%

Double chance X2

74%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals60%

Over 2.5 goals33%

Over 3.5 goals15%

Both teams to score40%

Correct score

0–115.7%
0–013.1%
1–113.1%
1–011.0%
0–29.4%

Why the model likes this

Stockton Town home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ashton United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 26% / 30% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.83 goals for Stockton Town and 1.20 for Ashton United, a combined 2.03 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 33% and both teams to score at 40%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.

Recent form

Stockton Town

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Leek Town · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Ashton United · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ilkeston Town · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-14T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Darlington 1883 · 1-3 (L)
2026-04-28T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Hednesford Town · 0-2 (L)

Ashton United

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.