The Map Group UK Stadium · Analysis updated 23:54 UTC
Stockton Town vs Lancaster City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.24 expected goals for Stockton Town and 0.98 for Lancaster City, a combined total of 2.22. That distribution gives Stockton Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws roughly 58% of the time.
Model pick
Stockton Town or Draw
70.7% probability
Expected goals
1.24 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.4%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–010.8%
- 0–110.6%
- 2–08.3%
Why the model likes this
Stockton Town home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Stockton Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 29% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.24 goals for Stockton Town and 0.98 for Lancaster City, a combined 2.22 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 38% and both teams to score at 45%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Recent form
Stockton Town
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Leek Town · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Ashton United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ilkeston Town · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-14T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Darlington 1883 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-28T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Hednesford Town · 0-2 (L)
Lancaster City
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Non League Premier - Northern table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleethorpes Town | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| 2 | Warrington Town | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Bury | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Gainsborough Trinity | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 5 | Avro | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 6 | Alfreton Town | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 7 | Ashton United | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | Whitby Town | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 9 | Ilkeston Town | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Redcar Athletic | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 11 | Guiseley AFC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | AFC Emley | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 13 | Hyde United | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 14 | Rylands | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Curzon Ashton | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 16 | Lancaster City | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 17 | Bamber Bridge | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 3 |
| 18 | Leek Town | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 19 | Stockton Town | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 20 | Workington | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 21 | Quorn | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
| 22 | United of Manchester | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.