Sturm Graz vs Pogon Szczecin Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.45 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 1.47 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 3.92. That distribution gives Sturm Graz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws roughly 41% of the time.

Model pick

Sturm Graz to Win

58.9% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

2.45 – 1.47

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Sturm Graz win59%

Draw19%

Pogon Szczecin win22%

Double chance 1X

78%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

41%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals90%

Over 2.5 goals75%

Over 3.5 goals55%

Both teams to score70%

Correct score

2–18.7%
3–17.1%
1–17.1%
2–26.4%
2–05.9%

Why the model likes this

Sturm Graz home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sturm Graz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 19% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.45 goals for Sturm Graz and 1.47 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined 3.92 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 75% and both teams to score at 70%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.

Recent form

Sturm Graz

2026-08-15T17:30:00.000Z · H vs SCR Altach · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-11T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Fenerbahçe · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-08T17:30:00.000Z · A vs TSV Hartberg · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Fenerbahçe · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-01T15:00:00.000Z · A vs WSG Wattens · 1-1 (D)

Pogon Szczecin

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.