Estadio Luis Alfonso Giagni · Analysis updated 02:59 UTC
Tacuary vs Sportivo Carapeguá Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Tacuary and 1.29 for Sportivo Carapeguá, a combined total of 2.96. That distribution gives Tacuary the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws roughly 54% of the time.
Model pick
Tacuary to Win
46.2% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.29
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–08.6%
- 1–27.2%
- 2–07.2%
Why the model likes this
Tacuary home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sportivo Carapeguá away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tacuary to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 24% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for Tacuary and 1.29 for Sportivo Carapeguá, a combined 2.96 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Tacuary
- 2026-08-10T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Guairena FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Resistencia · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-07-25T13:00:00.000Z · H vs SOL DE America · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-20T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Capiata · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-13T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Independiente F.b.c. · 2-2 (D)
Sportivo Carapeguá
- 2026-08-09T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fernando De La Mora · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-03T20:00:00.000Z · A vs 3 de Noviembre · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs General Caballero · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Guairena FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-10T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Resistencia · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division Intermedia table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 de Junio VH | 19 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 40 |
| 2 | General Caballero | 18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 36 |
| 3 | Benjamín Aceval | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 35 |
| 4 | Deportivo Santani | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 33 |
| 5 | SOL DE America | 19 | 6 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 29 |
| 6 | Independiente F.b.c. | 19 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 26 |
| 7 | Resistencia | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | -1 | 25 |
| 8 | Sportivo Carapeguá | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | -7 | 25 |
| 9 | Atlético Tembetary | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 23 |
| 10 | Deportivo Capiata | 18 | 5 | 8 | 5 | -1 | 23 |
| 11 | Guairena FC | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | -4 | 23 |
| 12 | Fernando De La Mora | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | -7 | 23 |
| 13 | Paraguari AC | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | -5 | 20 |
| 14 | Tacuary | 18 | 3 | 9 | 6 | -5 | 18 |
| 15 | Encarnación | 19 | 3 | 3 | 13 | -12 | 12 |
| 16 | 3 de Noviembre | 18 | 0 | 7 | 11 | -16 | 7 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.