Sportpark De Lok · Analysis updated 00:24 UTC
TEC vs Excelsior '31 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for TEC and 1.84 for Excelsior '31, a combined total of 3.23. That distribution gives Excelsior '31 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws roughly 52% of the time.
Model pick
Excelsior '31 to Win
48.1% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.84
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.1%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–17.3%
- 2–17.0%
- 0–26.7%
Why the model likes this
TEC home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Excelsior '31 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Excelsior '31 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 29% / 23% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for TEC and 1.84 for Excelsior '31, a combined 3.23 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
TEC
- 2026-08-15T12:30:00.000Z · A vs ACV · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-07T12:00:00.000Z · H vs NEO · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-06-03T18:00:00.000Z · A vs NEO · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-31T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Heino · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Heino · 0-0 (D)
Excelsior '31
- 2026-08-15T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Eemdijk · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-05-23T13:30:00.000Z · A vs URK · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-16T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Staphorst · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-05-09T13:00:00.000Z · A vs TEC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-25T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Harkemase Boys · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Derde Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excelsior '31 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 2 | Purmersteijn | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | Hoogeveen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Harkemase Boys | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | SC Genemuiden | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | ACV | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Sparta Nijkerk | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Sportlust '46 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Dovo | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Staphorst | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | ADO '20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Hercules | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | SVZW | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | Hollandia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 15 | DVS 33 Ermelo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | TEC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 | VV Scherpenzeel | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Eemdijk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 1 | Dongen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 2 | FC Lisse | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 3 | Noordwijk | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Vvsb | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Gemert | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Rijnvogels | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Excelsior Maassluis | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | UDI '19 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Roosendaal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | EVV | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Groene Ster | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | UNA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | GOES | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | TOGB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Poortugaal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | Blauw Geel | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 17 | Achilles Veen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 18 | Zwaluwen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.