Thróttur Vogar vs Fjolnir Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.15 expected goals for Thróttur Vogar and 2.17 for Fjolnir, a combined total of 4.32. That distribution gives Fjolnir the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws roughly 60% of the time.

Model pick

Fjolnir or Draw

60.3% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

2.15 – 2.17

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Thróttur Vogar win40%

Draw20%

Fjolnir win40%

Double chance 1X

60%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

60%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals93%

Over 2.5 goals80%

Over 3.5 goals63%

Both teams to score78%

Correct score

2–27.2%
1–26.7%
2–16.7%
1–16.2%
2–35.2%

Why the model likes this

Thróttur Vogar home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fjolnir away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fjolnir to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 20% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.15 goals for Thróttur Vogar and 2.17 for Fjolnir, a combined 4.32 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Thróttur Vogar

2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dalvík / Reynir · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Kormákur / Hvöt · 0-2 (L)
2026-07-29T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Hvíti riddarinn · 3-1 (W)
2026-07-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Fjardabyggd / Leiknir · 2-4 (L)
2026-07-17T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Haukar · 1-2 (L)

Fjolnir

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Selfoss · 2-6 (L)
2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs KFG · 4-1 (W)
2026-07-29T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Vikingur Olafsiik · 2-2 (D)
2026-07-24T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Haukar · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Magni · 2-5 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

2. Deild table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Haukar	17	12	2	3	21	38
2	Selfoss	17	9	5	3	9	32
3	Kári	17	7	8	2	18	29
4	Fjolnir	17	7	4	6	4	25
5	Vikingur Olafsiik	17	7	4	6	-5	25
6	Kormákur / Hvöt	17	6	6	5	10	24
7	Dalvík / Reynir	17	6	3	8	-3	21
8	Magni	17	6	3	8	-12	21
9	Fjardabyggd / Leiknir	17	6	2	9	3	20
10	Thróttur Vogar	17	6	1	10	-5	19
11	Hvíti riddarinn	17	3	7	7	-11	16
12	KFG	17	4	1	12	-29	13

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.