Trastevere vs Ischia Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Trastevere and 1.20 for Ischia, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Trastevere the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws roughly 50% of the time.

Model pick

Trastevere to Win

50.3% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.75 – 1.20

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Trastevere win50%

Draw24%

Ischia win26%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

50%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals57%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

1–111.0%
2–19.6%
1–09.2%
2–08.0%
1–26.6%

Why the model likes this

Trastevere home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ischia away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Trastevere to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 24% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Trastevere and 1.20 for Ischia, a combined 2.95 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Trastevere

2026-05-16T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Monastir · 0-1 (L)
2026-05-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Albalonga · 2-0 (W)
2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Anzio · 0-2 (L)
2026-04-26T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Albalonga · 3-0 (W)
2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Olbia · 2-3 (L)

Ischia

2026-07-31T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Juve Stabia · 1-5 (L)
2026-05-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Olbia · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Nocerina · 1-0 (W)
2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Montespaccato · 1-0 (W)
2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs USD Palmese · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-03-22T13:30:00.000Z · Trastevere 1-1 Ischia (Serie D - Girone G)
2025-11-09T13:30:00.000Z · Trastevere 1-2 Ischia (Serie D - Girone G)
2024-04-21T13:00:00.000Z · Trastevere 1-3 Ischia (Serie D - Girone G)
2023-12-10T13:30:00.000Z · Trastevere 1-2 Ischia (Serie D - Girone G)

Serie D - Girone G table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Scafatese	34	27	6	1	52	87
2	Trastevere	34	17	9	8	18	60
3	Monastir	34	15	8	11	7	53
4	Flaminia	34	13	12	9	16	51
5	Albalonga	34	14	8	12	1	50
6	Latte Dolce	34	14	6	14	0	48
7	Valmontone	34	14	6	14	-1	48
8	Nocerina	34	11	14	9	3	47
9	Sarrabus Ogliastra	34	12	10	12	-4	46
10	Budoni	34	12	9	13	2	45
11	USD Palmese	34	11	12	11	-2	45
12	Atletico Lodigiani	34	11	11	12	3	44
13	Ischia	34	12	7	15	-16	43
14	Anzio	34	10	11	13	-5	41
15	Olbia	34	8	14	12	-12	38
16	Real Monterotondo	34	10	6	18	-19	36
17	Montespaccato	34	6	12	16	-11	30
18	Cassino	34	4	9	21	-32	21

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.