Ukraine · Druha Liga · Regular Season - 614:00

14:00 UTC

Sunday, 13 September 2026

· Analysis updated 23:50 UTC

Trostianets vs Metalurh Zaporizhya Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Trostianets and 0.97 for Metalurh Zaporizhya, a combined total of 2.26. That distribution gives Trostianets the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

Trostianets or Draw

72.3% probability

High confidence

Expected goals

1.30 – 0.97

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Trostianets win44%
Draw28%
Metalurh Zaporizhya win28%

Double chance 1X

72%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals66%
Over 2.5 goals40%
Over 3.5 goals19%
Both teams to score45%

Correct score

  • 1–013.5%
  • 1–113.0%
  • 0–010.4%
  • 0–110.0%
  • 2–08.8%

Why the model likes this

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Trostianets to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 28% / 28% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.30 goals for Trostianets and 0.97 for Metalurh Zaporizhya, a combined 2.26 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 40% and both teams to score at 45%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.

  • Model confidence

    Trostianets or Draw is the headline pick at 72% with high confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Trostianets

    Metalurh Zaporizhya

      Head-to-head

      Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

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      Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.