Profertil Arena Hartberg · Referee Julian Weinberger, Austria · Analysis updated 01:48 UTC
TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.72 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.24 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 1.96. That distribution gives Sturm Graz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws roughly 51% of the time.
Model pick
Sturm Graz to Win
48.8% probability
Expected goals
0.72 – 1.24
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–117.5%
- 0–014.1%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–210.9%
- 1–010.1%
Why the model likes this
Sturm Graz away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sturm Graz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 21% / 30% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.72 goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.24 for Sturm Graz, a combined 1.96 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 31% and both teams to score at 36%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%.
Recent form
TSV Hartberg
Sturm Graz
- 2026-08-15T17:30:00.000Z · H vs SCR Altach · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-11T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Fenerbahçe · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-08T17:30:00.000Z · A vs TSV Hartberg · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Fenerbahçe · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-01T15:00:00.000Z · A vs WSG Wattens · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lask Linz | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 9 |
| 2 | Sturm Graz | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Rapid Vienna | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Wolfsberger AC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 5 | Red Bull Salzburg | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Austria Lustenau | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | SCR Altach | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Grazer AK | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 9 | WSG Wattens | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 10 | Ried | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 11 | TSV Hartberg | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 12 | Austria Vienna | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.