Valerenga vs Aalesund Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.25 expected goals for Valerenga and 1.50 for Aalesund, a combined total of 3.74. That distribution gives Valerenga the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws roughly 46% of the time.

Model pick

Valerenga to Win

54.5% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

2.25 – 1.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Valerenga win55%

Draw20%

Aalesund win25%

Double chance 1X

75%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

45%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals72%

Over 3.5 goals51%

Both teams to score69%

Correct score

2–18.9%
1–18.0%
3–16.7%
2–26.7%
2–06.0%

Why the model likes this

Valerenga home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Valerenga to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 20% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.25 goals for Valerenga and 1.50 for Aalesund, a combined 3.74 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 72% and both teams to score at 69%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.

Recent form

Valerenga

2026-08-08T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bodo/Glimt · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-31T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ham-Kam · 0-3 (L)
2026-07-26T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Brann · 3-2 (W)
2026-07-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Aalesund · 6-1 (W)
2026-07-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tromso · 0-4 (L)

Aalesund

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Eliteserien table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Bodo/Glimt	17	13	2	2	31	41
2	Viking	17	13	1	3	23	40
3	Tromso	16	10	4	2	15	34
4	Lillestrom	17	8	2	7	2	26
5	Molde	16	7	3	6	5	24
6	Rosenborg	17	7	3	7	3	24
7	Brann	16	7	1	8	6	22
8	Sarpsborg 08 FF	16	6	4	6	-2	22
9	Ham-Kam	16	6	4	6	-3	22
10	Valerenga	16	6	2	8	-6	20
11	Fredrikstad	16	6	2	8	-10	20
12	KFUM Oslo	17	5	4	8	-8	19
13	Sandefjord	16	4	3	9	-9	15
14	Kristiansund BK	16	4	3	9	-11	15
15	Aalesund	16	2	8	6	-14	14
16	Start	17	2	4	11	-22	10

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.