Valerenga vs Fredrikstad Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Valerenga and 1.82 for Fredrikstad, a combined total of 3.58. That distribution gives Fredrikstad the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws roughly 60% of the time.

Model pick

Fredrikstad or Draw

62.5% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.75 – 1.82

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Valerenga win38%

Draw22%

Fredrikstad win41%

Double chance 1X

60%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

63%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals69%

Over 3.5 goals48%

Both teams to score69%

Correct score

1–18.9%
1–28.2%
2–17.8%
2–27.1%
0–15.1%

Why the model likes this

Valerenga home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fredrikstad to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 38% / 22% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Valerenga and 1.82 for Fredrikstad, a combined 3.58 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 69% and both teams to score at 69%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.

Recent form

Valerenga

2026-08-08T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bodo/Glimt · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-31T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ham-Kam · 0-3 (L)
2026-07-26T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Brann · 3-2 (W)
2026-07-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Aalesund · 6-1 (W)
2026-07-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tromso · 0-4 (L)

Fredrikstad

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.