Volga Ulyanovsk vs Fakel Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.72 expected goals for Volga Ulyanovsk and 1.40 for Fakel, a combined total of 2.11. That distribution gives Fakel the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws roughly 47% of the time.

Model pick

Fakel to Win

53.1% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

0.72 – 1.40

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Volga Ulyanovsk win19%

Draw28%

Fakel win53%

Double chance 1X

47%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

81%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals62%

Over 2.5 goals35%

Over 3.5 goals16%

Both teams to score39%

Correct score

0–116.8%
1–112.1%
0–012.1%
0–211.7%
1–08.7%

Why the model likes this

Fakel away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fakel to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 19% / 28% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.72 goals for Volga Ulyanovsk and 1.40 for Fakel, a combined 2.11 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 35% and both teams to score at 39%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%.

Recent form

Volga Ulyanovsk

Fakel

2026-08-15T13:15:00.000Z · A vs CSKA Moscow · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Akhmat · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-05T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Dynamo · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-02T15:15:00.000Z · A vs FC Krasnodar · 2-3 (L)
2026-07-25T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Makhachkala · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

First League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Rodina Moskva	34	19	11	4	30	68
2	Fakel	34	20	8	6	22	68
3	Ural	34	18	7	9	20	61
4	Rotor Volgograd	34	15	11	8	21	56
5	KAMAZ	34	12	13	9	12	49
6	Enisey	34	13	10	11	2	49
7	Spartak Kostroma	34	12	13	9	5	49
8	Shinnik Yaroslavl	34	11	15	8	6	48
9	Torpedo Moskva	34	12	10	12	-2	46
10	Chelyabinsk	34	10	14	10	2	44
11	FK Neftekhimik	34	10	13	11	-1	43
12	Ska-khabarovsk	34	10	12	12	-8	42
13	Arsenal Tula	34	8	15	11	-2	39
14	Volga Ulyanovsk	34	9	10	15	-13	37
15	FC UFA	34	9	10	15	-8	37
16	Chernomorets	34	9	8	17	-12	35
17	FK Sokol Saratov	34	5	11	18	-28	26
18	Chayka	34	5	7	22	-46	22

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.