Azerbaijan · Premyer Liqa · Regular Season - 315:00
ArazD

15:00 UTC

Saturday, 29 August 2026

· Analysis updated 22:59 UTC

Araz vs Sabah FA Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.39 expected goals for Araz and 0.58 for Sabah FA, a combined total of 0.96. That distribution gives Sabah FA the largest share of the 1X2 market at 33%, with the draw at 47%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 7% for over 2.5 goals and 14% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 38%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 33% favourite still loses or draws roughly 67% of the time.

Model pick

Draw

47.2% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

0.39 – 0.58

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Araz win20%
Draw47%
Sabah FA win33%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

53%

Double chance X2

80%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals25%
Over 2.5 goals7%
Over 3.5 goals2%
Both teams to score14%

Correct score

  • 0–038.1%
  • 0–121.9%
  • 1–014.8%
  • 1–18.5%
  • 0–26.3%

Why the model likes this

  • Sabah FA away threat

    Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 20% / 47% / 33% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 0.39 goals for Araz and 0.58 for Sabah FA, a combined 0.96 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 7% and both teams to score at 14%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 38%.

Recent form

Araz

    Sabah FA

    • 2026-08-15T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Kapaz · 2-0 (W)
    • 2026-08-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Aarhus · 4-0 (W)
    • 2026-08-05T17:10:00.000Z · A vs Aarhus · 1-2 (L)
    • 2026-07-28T15:00:00.000Z · A vs KuPS · 2-0 (W)
    • 2026-07-21T16:00:00.000Z · H vs KuPS · 1-0 (W)

    Head-to-head

    Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

    Premyer Liqa table

    Full league page →
    #TeamPWDLGDPts
    1Sabah FA110023
    2Turan110013
    3Imisli FK101001
    4Araz101001
    5Şamaxı FK000000
    6Qarabag000000
    7Neftchi Baku000000
    8Safa Baku000000
    9Sumqayıt000000
    10Zira000000
    11Qabala1001-10
    12Kapaz1001-20

    Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.