Arlanda vs IF Karlstad Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Arlanda and 1.04 for IF Karlstad, a combined total of 2.07. That distribution gives IF Karlstad the largest share of the 1X2 market at 35%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 35% favourite still loses or draws roughly 65% of the time.

Model pick

IF Karlstad or Draw

65.4% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.03 – 1.04

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Arlanda win35%

Draw30%

IF Karlstad win35%

Double chance 1X

65%

Double chance 12

70%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals61%

Over 2.5 goals34%

Over 3.5 goals16%

Both teams to score42%

Correct score

1–113.5%
0–113.2%
1–013.0%
0–012.6%
1–27.0%

Why the model likes this

Arlanda home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
IF Karlstad away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates IF Karlstad to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 35%, against 35% / 30% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for Arlanda and 1.04 for IF Karlstad, a combined 2.07 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Recent form

Arlanda

2026-08-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Piteå · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-03T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Hammarby Talang · 1-5 (L)
2026-07-25T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Haninge · 6-1 (W)
2026-06-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs IF Karlstad · 1-0 (W)
2026-06-23T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Järfälla · 2-0 (W)

IF Karlstad

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Assyriska FF · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Järfälla · 4-1 (W)
2026-08-02T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Enköping · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-24T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Örebro Syrianska · 4-1 (W)
2026-06-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Arlanda · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ettan - Norra table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Hammarby Talang	17	11	3	3	30	36
2	IF Karlstad	17	11	3	3	15	36
3	Stockholm Internazionale	16	9	3	4	16	30
4	Arlanda	16	8	6	2	9	30
5	AFC Eskilstuna	17	8	4	5	3	28
6	Enköping	16	9	1	6	1	28
7	FBK Karlstad	16	7	4	5	1	25
8	Karlberg	17	7	3	7	3	24
9	Assyriska FF	17	6	5	6	0	23
10	Gefle IF	17	6	2	9	-13	20
11	Vasalund	16	5	4	7	-8	19
12	Sollentuna	17	3	8	6	-9	17
13	Umeå FC	17	4	4	9	-9	16
14	Järfälla	17	4	3	10	-14	15
15	Stocksund	17	2	5	10	-7	11
16	Piteå	16	2	4	10	-18	10

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.