Waldstadion Aplerbeck · Analysis updated 03:30 UTC
ASC Dortmund vs Vreden Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.36 expected goals for ASC Dortmund and 1.73 for Vreden, a combined total of 3.09. That distribution gives Vreden the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws roughly 54% of the time.
Model pick
Vreden to Win
46.2% probability
Expected goals
1.36 – 1.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–17.9%
- 2–17.3%
- 0–26.8%
Why the model likes this
Vreden away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vreden to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 30% / 24% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.36 goals for ASC Dortmund and 1.73 for Vreden, a combined 3.09 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 60% and both teams to score at 61%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Recent form
ASC Dortmund
Vreden
- 2026-08-09T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Hiltrup · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-31T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Erkenschwick · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-05-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs ASC Dortmund · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Schermbeck · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Westfalia Rhynern · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Oberliga - Westfalen table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eintracht Rheine | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 2 | Preußen Münster II | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 3 | Maaslingen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Vreden | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 5 | Westfalia Kinderhaus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Verl II | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Sprockhovel | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Ennepetal | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Erkenschwick | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Gievenbeck | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | TuS Hordel | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Arminia II | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 13 | SpVgg Herne Horsthausen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | Victoria Clarholz | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 15 | ASC Dortmund | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | Hiltrup | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 17 | Lippstadt 08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Schermbeck | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.