Sodertalje Fotbollsarena · Analysis updated 02:42 UTC
Assyriska FF vs IF Karlstad Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Assyriska FF and 1.60 for IF Karlstad, a combined total of 2.74. That distribution gives IF Karlstad the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws roughly 52% of the time.
Model pick
IF Karlstad to Win
48.2% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 0–110.4%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–28.3%
- 1–07.3%
Why the model likes this
IF Karlstad away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates IF Karlstad to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 27% / 25% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.13 goals for Assyriska FF and 1.60 for IF Karlstad, a combined 2.74 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 52% and both teams to score at 54%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Recent form
Assyriska FF
IF Karlstad
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Assyriska FF · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Järfälla · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-02T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Enköping · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-24T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Örebro Syrianska · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-06-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Arlanda · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ettan - Norra table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hammarby Talang | 17 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 30 | 36 |
| 2 | IF Karlstad | 17 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 36 |
| 3 | Stockholm Internazionale | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 30 |
| 4 | Arlanda | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 30 |
| 5 | AFC Eskilstuna | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 28 |
| 6 | Enköping | 16 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 28 |
| 7 | FBK Karlstad | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 25 |
| 8 | Karlberg | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 24 |
| 9 | Assyriska FF | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 23 |
| 10 | Gefle IF | 17 | 6 | 2 | 9 | -13 | 20 |
| 11 | Vasalund | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | -8 | 19 |
| 12 | Sollentuna | 17 | 3 | 8 | 6 | -9 | 17 |
| 13 | Umeå FC | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | -9 | 16 |
| 14 | Järfälla | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | -14 | 15 |
| 15 | Stocksund | 17 | 2 | 5 | 10 | -7 | 11 |
| 16 | Piteå | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | -18 | 10 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.