Ukraine · Druha Liga · Regular Season - 814:00
AtletL

14:00 UTC

Saturday, 26 September 2026

· Analysis updated 02:54 UTC

Atlet vs Metalurh Zaporizhya Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.52 expected goals for Atlet and 1.36 for Metalurh Zaporizhya, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives Atlet the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws roughly 59% of the time.

Model pick

Atlet or Draw

65.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.52 – 1.36

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Atlet win41%
Draw25%
Metalurh Zaporizhya win34%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

59%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Over 3.5 goals33%
Both teams to score58%

Correct score

  • 1–111.6%
  • 2–18.8%
  • 1–08.5%
  • 1–27.9%
  • 0–17.7%

Why the model likes this

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Atlet to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 25% / 34% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.52 goals for Atlet and 1.36 for Metalurh Zaporizhya, a combined 2.88 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 55% and both teams to score at 58%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

  • Model confidence

    Atlet or Draw is the headline pick at 66% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Atlet

    Metalurh Zaporizhya

      Head-to-head

      Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

      Druha Liga table

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      Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.