Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.68 expected goals for Atletico-MG and 0.90 for Chapecoense-sc, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Atletico-MG the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws roughly 44% of the time.

Model pick

Atletico-MG to Win

55.7% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.68 – 0.90

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Atletico-MG win56%

Draw24%

Chapecoense-sc win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

44%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

1–012.8%
1–111.5%
2–010.7%
2–19.6%
0–07.6%

Why the model likes this

Atletico-MG home form
5 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Chapecoense-sc away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Recent form

Atletico-MG

2026-08-12T22:00:00.000Z · A vs RB Bragantino · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-08T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Remo · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-04T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Juventude · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-01T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Juventude · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-26T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Palmeiras · 2-1 (W)

Chapecoense-sc

2026-08-08T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Coritiba · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-05T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Cruzeiro · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-02T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Cruzeiro · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-25T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Santos · 2-2 (D)
2026-07-23T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Flamengo · 0-4 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-04-02T22:00:00.000Z · Atletico-MG 4-0 Chapecoense-sc (Serie A)
2021-10-06T22:00:00.000Z · Atletico-MG 2-2 Chapecoense-sc (Serie A)
2021-06-21T23:00:00.000Z · Atletico-MG 1-1 Chapecoense-sc (Serie A)
2019-10-30T22:30:00.000Z · Atletico-MG 0-2 Chapecoense-SC (Serie A)
2019-07-14T22:00:00.000Z · Atletico-MG 2-1 Chapecoense-SC (Serie A)
2018-10-06T19:00:00.000Z · Atletico-MG 0-1 Chapecoense-sc (Serie A)
2018-06-02T19:00:00.000Z · Atletico-MG 3-3 Chapecoense-sc (Serie A)
2018-05-16T22:30:00.000Z · Atletico-MG 0-0 Chapecoense-SC (Copa Do Brasil)
2018-05-02T22:30:00.000Z · Atletico-MG 0-0 Chapecoense-SC (Copa Do Brasil)
2017-10-18T23:00:00.000Z · Atletico-MG 2-3 Chapecoense-sc (Serie A)

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Palmeiras	23	14	6	3	21	48
2	Flamengo	21	12	6	3	21	42
3	Atletico Paranaense	23	12	5	6	11	41
4	Fluminense	23	10	8	5	6	38
5	Cruzeiro	22	9	6	7	-1	33
6	Bahia	22	8	9	5	4	33
7	RB Bragantino	22	9	5	8	4	32
8	Corinthians	22	8	8	6	4	32
9	Coritiba	23	8	7	8	-2	31
10	Botafogo	21	8	6	7	2	30
11	Atletico-MG	21	8	5	8	0	29
12	Sao Paulo	22	7	6	9	1	27
13	Vitoria	22	7	5	10	-11	26
14	Gremio	21	6	7	8	-3	25
15	Mirassol	21	6	5	10	-6	23
16	Internacional	22	5	8	9	-4	23
17	Santos	21	5	7	9	-6	22
18	Vasco DA Gama	21	5	7	9	-8	22
19	Remo	22	5	7	10	-10	22
20	Chapecoense-sc	21	1	7	13	-23	10

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.