Bulgaria · Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 3415:00

24

Saturday, 9 May 2026

· Analysis updated 01:52 UTC

Atletik Kuklen vs Spartak Plovdiv Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Atletik Kuklen and 1.36 for Spartak Plovdiv, a combined total of 3.32. That distribution gives Atletik Kuklen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws roughly 49% of the time.

Model pick

Atletik Kuklen to Win

51.3% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.95 – 1.36

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Atletik Kuklen win51%
Draw22%
Spartak Plovdiv win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

49%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Over 3.5 goals42%
Both teams to score64%

Correct score

  • 1–19.7%
  • 2–19.4%
  • 1–07.1%
  • 2–06.9%
  • 1–26.6%

Why the model likes this

  • Spartak Plovdiv away threat

    Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Atletik Kuklen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 22% / 27% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.95 goals for Atletik Kuklen and 1.36 for Spartak Plovdiv, a combined 3.32 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 64% and both teams to score at 64%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Recent form

Atletik Kuklen

    Spartak Plovdiv

    • 2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sozopol · 4-3 (W)
    • 2026-05-30T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Yambol 1915 · 2-4 (L)
    • 2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Maritsa Plovdiv · 3-1 (W)
    • 2026-05-17T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Nesebar · 1-6 (L)
    • 2026-05-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rozova dolina · 4-0 (W)

    Head-to-head

    Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

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    Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.