Auxerre vs Nice Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.42 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.07 for Nice, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Auxerre the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws roughly 55% of the time.

Model pick

Auxerre to Win

45.0% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.42 – 1.07

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Auxerre win45%

Draw27%

Nice win29%

Double chance 1X

72%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals71%

Over 2.5 goals46%

Over 3.5 goals24%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

1–112.6%
1–011.7%
2–19.0%
0–18.8%
2–08.3%

Why the model likes this

Auxerre home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nice away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.

Recent form

Auxerre

2026-08-08T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Estac Troyes · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sochaux · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Orleans · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs St Maur Lusitanos · 5-2 (W)
2026-05-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Lille · 2-0 (W)

Nice

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hull City · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-08T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Cagliari · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-31T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Juventus · 0-2 (L)
2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Marseille · 3-0 (W)
2026-07-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nimes · 4-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-05-10T19:00:00.000Z · Auxerre 2-1 Nice (Ligue 1)
2025-08-23T17:00:00.000Z · Auxerre 1-3 Nice (Ligue 1)
2025-03-14T19:45:00.000Z · Auxerre 1-1 Nice (Ligue 1)
2024-08-18T13:00:00.000Z · Auxerre 2-1 Nice (Ligue 1)
2024-01-06T19:45:00.000Z · Auxerre 0-0 Nice (Coupe de France)
2023-03-03T20:00:00.000Z · Auxerre 1-1 Nice (Ligue 1)
2022-10-16T13:00:00.000Z · Auxerre 1-1 Nice (Ligue 1)
2018-10-31T17:45:00.000Z · Auxerre 2-3 Nice (Coupe de la Ligue)
2012-04-21T17:00:00.000Z · Auxerre 0-1 Nice (Ligue 1)
2011-12-11T16:00:00.000Z · Auxerre 2-1 Nice (Ligue 1)

Ligue 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Paris Saint Germain	34	24	4	6	45	76
2	Lens	34	22	4	8	31	70
3	Lille	34	18	7	9	15	61
4	Lyon	34	18	6	10	13	60
5	Marseille	34	18	5	11	18	59
6	Rennes	34	17	8	9	9	59
7	Monaco	34	16	6	12	6	54
8	Strasbourg	34	15	8	11	11	53
9	Lorient	34	11	12	11	-3	45
10	Toulouse	33	12	8	13	1	44
11	Paris FC	34	11	11	12	-3	44
12	Stade Brestois 29	34	10	9	15	-12	39
13	Angers	34	9	9	16	-19	36
14	Le Havre	34	7	14	13	-12	35
15	Auxerre	34	8	10	16	-10	34
16	Nice	34	7	11	16	-23	32
17	Nantes	33	5	8	20	-23	23
18	Metz	34	3	8	23	-44	17

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.