Balkan Botevgrad vs Septemvri Simitli Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.07 expected goals for Balkan Botevgrad and 1.64 for Septemvri Simitli, a combined total of 2.71. That distribution gives Septemvri Simitli the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws roughly 49% of the time.

Model pick

Septemvri Simitli to Win

50.6% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.07 – 1.64

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Balkan Botevgrad win25%

Draw25%

Septemvri Simitli win51%

Double chance 1X

49%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

75%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–111.7%
0–110.9%
1–29.6%
0–28.9%
1–07.1%

Why the model likes this

Septemvri Simitli away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Septemvri Simitli to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 25% / 25% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.07 goals for Balkan Botevgrad and 1.64 for Septemvri Simitli, a combined 2.71 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 51% and both teams to score at 53%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Recent form

Balkan Botevgrad

Septemvri Simitli

2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Balkan Botevgrad · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-01T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kostinbrod · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Belasica · 3-0 (W)
2026-05-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kyustendil · 2-0 (W)
2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Septemvri Sofia II · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Third League - Southwest table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FK Minyor Pernik	2	2	0	0	4	6
2	Septemvri Simitli	2	2	0	0	3	6
3	Septemvri Sofia II	2	2	0	0	2	6
4	Bansko	2	1	1	0	3	4
5	Strumska Slava	2	1	1	0	2	4
6	Belasitsa	2	1	0	1	1	3
7	Levski Sofia II	2	1	0	1	0	3
8	Botev Ihtiman	2	1	0	1	0	3
9	Kostinbrod	2	1	0	1	0	3
10	Slavia Sofia II	2	1	0	1	0	3
11	Kyustendil	2	1	0	1	-1	3
12	Oborishte	2	0	2	0	0	2
13	CSKA Sofia III	2	0	2	0	0	2
14	Natsional Sofia	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Chavdar Etropole	2	0	1	1	-3	1
16	Slivnishki geroy	2	0	0	2	-2	0
17	Balkan Botevgrad	2	0	0	2	-3	0
18	Pirin Razlog	2	0	0	2	-5	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.