Ballymena Showgrounds · Analysis updated 01:53 UTC
Ballymena United vs Larne Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Ballymena United and 1.18 for Larne, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Ballymena United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.
Model pick
Ballymena United or Draw
69.8% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-baseline-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.3%
- 2–07.7%
Why the model likes this
Larne away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ballymena United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Ballymena United and 1.18 for Larne, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 50% and both teams to score at 54%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Recent form
Ballymena United
Larne
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Coleraine FC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Saburtalo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-04T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Saburtalo · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Crvena Zvezda · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-07-21T19:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Crvena Zvezda · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cliftonville FC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Carrick Rangers | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Coleraine FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 4 | Ballymena United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 5 | Glentoran | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Crusaders FC | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Dungannon Swifts | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 8 | Linfield | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 9 | Larne | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Portadown | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 11 | Limavady United | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 12 | Bangor | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.