Aspmyra Stadion · Referee Mohammad Usman Aslam, Norway · Analysis updated 02:58 UTC
Bodo/Glimt vs Lillestrom Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 0.75 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Bodo/Glimt the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws roughly 38% of the time.
Model pick
Bodo/Glimt to Win
62.4% probability
Expected goals
1.80 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.1%
- 2–012.6%
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–07.8%
Why the model likes this
Bodo/Glimt home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bodo/Glimt to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 23% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.80 goals for Bodo/Glimt and 0.75 for Lillestrom, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 47% and both teams to score at 44%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Recent form
Bodo/Glimt
- 2026-08-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Union St. Gilloise · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-08T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Valerenga · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Union St. Gilloise · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-07-31T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lillestrom · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-07-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sandefjord · 3-0 (W)
Lillestrom
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bodo/Glimt | 17 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 31 | 41 |
| 2 | Viking | 17 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 40 |
| 3 | Tromso | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 34 |
| 4 | Lillestrom | 17 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 26 |
| 5 | Molde | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 24 |
| 6 | Rosenborg | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 24 |
| 7 | Brann | 16 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 22 |
| 8 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 22 |
| 9 | Ham-Kam | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | -3 | 22 |
| 10 | Valerenga | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 20 |
| 11 | Fredrikstad | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | -10 | 20 |
| 12 | KFUM Oslo | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | -8 | 19 |
| 13 | Sandefjord | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | -9 | 15 |
| 14 | Kristiansund BK | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | -11 | 15 |
| 15 | Aalesund | 16 | 2 | 8 | 6 | -14 | 14 |
| 16 | Start | 17 | 2 | 4 | 11 | -22 | 10 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.